Iran, Türkei, Russland und Afrin

Die türkische Intervention in Afrin und die daraus folgenden Spannungen zwischen den drei sogenannten Schutzmächten des sogenannten Friedensprozesses von Asatan:

The three pillars of the Astana process — namely Russia, Turkey and Iran — are each on a different side in the battle for Afrin, despite some intersections between these actors. This might be a factor that could cause cracks in the framework of the joint path that emerged between the trio in the past few months as a serious attempt to reach a peaceful solution for the ongoing conflict in Syria. While Turkey is on the offensive, Russia is trying to preserve its ties with Ankara while maintaining strong relations with the Kurds.

One military source near Afrin told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “The Russians are mastering the game of contradictions; while not showing opposition to the Turkish side, they didn’t desert the Kurds [and leave them] alone in this battle.” The source added, “The Russians are transporting Kurdish fighters from Hasakah and Qamishli to Afrin. Besides, it would be interesting to know how the Kurds got their anti-tank missiles.”

The Iranians had been trying to broker a deal between the Kurds and the Syrian army to secure the latter’s deployment in the area alongside Kurdish fighters and some groups that are allied with Iran. The Iranian effort is aimed at exiting fighting with the best results possible; preserving its position as a friend to both the Syrian Kurds and Turkey; and, at the same time, barricading the path for other parties who might want to invest in the fighting in Afrin to enhance their position in the Syrian crisis — namely, the United States.