Ein zweites Ghouta? Großoffensive in Südsyrien droht

Eigentlich ist das südysische De'ra eine der so genannten Desskaltionszonen in Syrien. Das heißt, wie allgemein bekannt ist, nicht viel, waren die Ghouta bei Damaskus auch. Und so bereiten sich Russland und das Assad-Regime seit Wochen darauf vor, De'ra zurück zu erobern. Ausgerechnet in dieser Stadt begannen 2011 die Massenproteste in Syrien und bis heute wird sie von Rebellen der Free Syrian Army gehalten, Islamisten spielen hier, anders als im Norden Syriens keine dominante Rolle.

"Well over a million civilians live in southern Syria, including over 300,000 refugees from other parts of the country. They will be forced to bear the consequences of the new phase of the Syrian war."

Bislang waren sie einigermaßen von den USA, Jordanien und Israel geschützt, nun scheint es zwischen israelischer und russischer Regierung eine Art Deal zu geben, dass Israel Assad gewähren lässt, solange weder iranische Truppen noch schiitische Milizen sich an der Offensive beteiligen. Schon heißt es, deshalb würden Iraner nun in syrischen Uniformen kämpfen. Derweil gaben die USA eine halbherzige Erklärung ab, eine Eroberung des Gebietes nicht dulden zu wollen. Ob sie es damit allerdings ernst meinen, wird von allen Beteilgten stark in Zweifel gezogen.

Sollte diese Offensive mit allen erwartbaren tragischen Folgen für die Zivilbevölkerung nun stattfinden, so handelt es sich keineswegs nur um eine innersyrische Angelegenheit, sondern auch um eine Eskalation des iranisch-israelischen Konfliktes:

Both Iran and Israel have reason to watch the regime offensive closely, as whatever happens on the battlefields deeply affects their ability to maintain their respective spheres of influence.

In simple terms, all these moving pieces mean one thing: the Iran/Israel cold war will heat up. Iranian-backed and Israeli-backed groups will likely meet each other on the battlefield. The results of such conflicts will partially determine which country can keep their power in the region.

Israel has long-held much of the Golan Heights, and has incorporated several opposition groups, such as the Knights of Golan, to function essentially as Israeli border police, ensuring that no Iranian force gets too close. But Israeli officials have long expressed a desire to cement their influence into Deraa, which they have reportedly done.

Moreover, because of the presence of outside funding to both sides, the southern front offensive will likely be drawn out, as both sides can rely on a steady stream of support.

Ein Desaster wartet

Auf die Menschen in De'ra dagegen wartet ein Desaster, sie wissen, dass was ihnen bevorsteht, die Bewohner Ghoutas und anderer Orte schon hinter sich haben:

The offensive will likely be an outright humanitarian disaster. The rebels are stuck there, and the people are trapped with a dwindling supply of food and support.

The Western-backed rebel groups in the south are much more unlikely to accept a deal to withdraw from the south and be relocated elsewhere, such as Idlib. They have little ties to the rest of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is backed by Turkey in other parts of the country. On top of that, their current support is likely tied to their strategic location in the south, meaning if they upend themselves out of the region, they will lose their backing.

So they will likely stay in the south, all but ensuring the battles will go to the bitter end.

For the people of southern Syria, they face a dire crisis. (...)

Humanitarian groups working in the south also fear another Eastern Ghouta-style besiegement that would prevent shipments of food, water and medical aid into the region as the offensive gets underway.

One aid worker who spoke to Al Bawaba on the condition of anonymity expressed deep fear that if Assad can control the borders of the southern region, he will choke off the people of Deraa and Quinetra as he did with the hundreds of thousands that were trapped inside Eastern Ghouta. There, aid trucks were forced to wait outside the embattled neighborhoods for hours and had much of their aid confiscated.

Even when they were allowed in, the regime shelled their routes, forcing them to turn back and leave without every distributing aid.

Well over a million civilians live in southern Syria, including over 300,000 refugees from other parts of the country.

They will be forced to bear the consequences of the new phase of the Syrian war, which has mutated nearly beyond the point of recognition.