Sonntag, 13.05.2018 / 16:51 Uhr

'Iran has overplayed in Syria'

Von
Aus dem Netz

Seth J. Frantzman über den Iran in Syrien:

Besides overplaying its hand, a major flaw in Iran’s thinking has been not taking into account the Russian role in Syria. Russia has been working with Iran and Turkey to de-escalate the conflict in Syria, both through talks in Astana and also trilateral talks in November 2017 and April 2018. In addition Russia helped broker a ceasefire in southern Syria with Jordan and the US in July 2017 and Russia has held frequent meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the Syrian situation.

Iran’s rocket fire at Israel risks destabilizing Syria just when the regime has some breathing room after seven years of civil war and Russia opposes anything that might imperil the Assad regime. This leaves Iran with less options. In Syria it risks Iran’s relationship with Russia. Threatening Israel through proxies in Lebanon risks Hezbollah’s hard-won status in the government, most recently acquired again through elections in which Hezbollah allies performed well. Iraq is too far away to really threaten Israel, except by sending Iraqi Shi’ite militias to Syria. In addition, Hamas has been badly weakened in Gaza. Having overplayed its hand Tehran must now consider that conflict with Israel and with other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, are not in its interest. If it wants to keep its influence it will de-escalate the rising tensions near the Golan.