Die Syririsierung Libyens

Über die Entwicklung in Libyen schreibt Fehim Tastekin:

As things stand at present, military deterrence is likely to dictate a fresh negotiation process, steered by Turkey and Russia. 

A Turkish posture blocking Russia from Tripoli may suit Turkey’s Western allies, just as in Idlib, but a Turkish-Russian partnership, forced by the conditions, would emerge as an objectionable option for the NATO camp. France has already raised the alarm, even though it aligns with Russia in backing Hifter. “The crisis is deepening. We are facing a ‘Syrianization’ of Libya,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves le Drian warned May 27. 

As a former colonial power in North Africa, France is averse to a playmaking role for Turkey in Libya. And Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense systems has shown NATO allies how its partnership with Russia in Syria could expand into the defense realm. 

For Egypt and EU members Greece and Cyprus, Turkey’s strengthening position in Libya — as much as to impose conditions on the negotiating table — would mean a setback in their rivalry with Turkey over energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean. A principal gain that Turkey would expect from a political settlement in Libya is the preservation of the maritime demarcation accord it signed with the Government of National Accord in November. The United States, too, is unhappy with the accord, as its ambassador to Greece reiterated this week. 

For Cairo, there is also the nightmare scenario of the Muslim Brotherhood thriving next door in Libya thanks to support from Turkey, which had also backed the toppled Brotherhood government in Egypt. And the Donald Trump administration has been quite sympathetic to such Egyptian concerns. 

In sum, Turkey may be getting applause for spoiling Russian calculations, but a playmaking role for Turkey in Libya would have many different repercussions for various actors. 

And though the Libyan equation has become much more complex than it may seem, Turkey remains confident. France and anyone who is still supporting Hifter “is on the wrong side in the Libyan conflict,” Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said May 25. 

If a negotiating table is set to reunite Libya, the onus will be on Russia to coax the eastern forces — the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, led by Aguila Saleh, the interim government led by Abdullah al-Thani and Hifter’s forces. Russia is already making efforts on that front.